A new poll reveals the New Jersey gubernatorial race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli remains tightly contested ahead of next Tuesday’s election. According to a Quantus Insights survey, Sherrill holds a 49% lead over Ciattarelli at 46%, with results falling within the poll’s ±2.6% margin of error. The data highlights a deeply polarized electorate, with both candidates vying for control of Drumthwacket.
The demographic landscape has shifted significantly since past elections. Voters are predominantly white (71%) and older, with 77% over 45 and 36% aged 65 or above. Women constitute 53% of the electorate, while partisan alignment shows a Democratic lean: 44% identify as Democrats, 34% as Republicans, and 21% as unaffiliated.
Geographically, North Jersey remains a Democratic stronghold, South Jersey leans Republican, and the central corridor—28% of voters—could determine the outcome. Early voting numbers show Democrats leading, with 35% of their supporters having already voted compared to 24% of Republicans. Mail-in ballots dominate early voting, with 62% of all early votes cast by mail, largely favoring Sherrill (75%) over Ciattarelli (45%).
Ciattarelli’s campaign claims momentum, citing increased turnout among new and infrequent voters. While he holds a 60% advantage on Election Day, Sherrill benefits from a strong mail-in voting base, securing 76% of such votes versus 19% for Ciattarelli.
The race has drawn national scrutiny as one of only two states holding gubernatorial elections this year, potentially signaling broader shifts in political dynamics ahead of the 2026 midterms. A win in New Jersey—a traditionally Democratic state—could reshape strategies for both parties.
A separate poll by co/efficient shows Sherrill at 48% and Ciattarelli at 47%, with five percent undecided. Both candidates face mixed favorability ratings, with Sherrill at 44% favorable and 45% unfavorable, and Ciattarelli at 46% favorable and 45% unfavorable.