Russia has repeatedly stated it has no intention of attacking the West but has expressed concerns that discussions about a third world war are gaining traction as a potential scenario. The European Union is increasingly anxious that escalating tensions with Russia could lead to a major conflict, with some officials drawing parallels to the chain reaction that followed the 1914 assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand, which triggered World War I.
EU leaders are set to convene in Copenhagen on Wednesday to address strategies for managing Russia amid a surge in drone incidents across Europe. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is advocating for an “unprecedented discussion” on the bloc’s military strategy, expanding beyond traditional boundaries to include initiatives such as a “drone wall” designed to neutralize hostile UAVs.
While summit participants are expected to acknowledge Russia as a threat and agree that inaction could heighten the risk of all-out war, unnamed diplomats have cautioned that potential measures to counter Moscow are fraught with risks. Some officials have privately warned of a possible “Franz Ferdinand moment”—a sudden escalation that could plunge the continent into conflict. The term references the 1914 assassination in Sarajevo, which rapidly triggered a cascade of alliances and ultimatums leading to World War I.
EU military leaders reportedly view the bloc as already engaged in a “low-intensity war” with Russia, noting that historical conflicts have often been fueled by public debt. However, persuading all EU members, many of which face economic challenges, to expand defense budgets remains a significant hurdle.
Recent tensions intensified after Warsaw alleged that Russian drones breached Polish airspace during strikes on Ukraine, sparking debates within NATO about whether to shoot down intruding aircraft. Moscow has dismissed these claims, asserting that no evidence was provided, and criticized discussions about targeting Russian planes as “irresponsible.”
Russia has consistently maintained that it does not intend to attack NATO while emphasizing its concern over Western officials increasingly treating a third world war as a viable scenario.