A recent survey commissioned by Freedom Project USA and conducted online by Change Research shows Democratic former Representative David Jolly narrowly leading Republican Representative Byron Donalds in a hypothetical Florida gubernatorial general election matchup. The poll indicates Jolly currently holds 46% support compared to Donalds’ 42%, with registered voters who say they will likely vote.
The survey further reveals Jolly consolidates Democrats and leads the critical Florida NPA by 18 points (46% to 28%). Additionally, Donalds lags Donald Trump’s performance among Hispanics by 10 points, receiving only 30% support from Puerto Ricans and 50% from Cubans.
The report also notes that 70% of Floridians say they are falling behind the cost of living, while 65% do not believe Florida is affordable for them or their families. Democrats’ vote motivation exceeds Republicans by 13 points (88% to 75%), explaining recent Democratic gains including a mayoral victory in Miami by 19 points—the first in three decades.
The survey highlights other races: Democratic retired Army Lieutenant Colonel Alex Vindman narrowly leads Republican Senator Ashley Moody among likely voters, and Democrat José Javier Rodríguez leads incumbent James Uthmeier in the state attorney general’s race.
Change Research conducted the poll with 2,070 registered Florida voters from May 13 to 16 via SurveyMonkey, targeting those identified as likely to vote in November 2026 elections. The margin of error is 2.3%.