Texas early voting for this year’s primary has witnessed record-breaking Democratic turnout statewide, with over 750,000 ballots cast by Democrats—exceeding the entire early voter count from 2022. Republicans have registered nearly 600,000 votes, representing roughly two-thirds of their total early voting in 2022.
Scott Presler described the trend as “not good” for Republicans, noting Democratic momentum could lead to a decisive outcome: “Democrats are outvoting Republicans in early voting for the March 3rd primary. If Texas falls, the nation falls.” VoteHub data confirms Democrats have cast 1.5 times more ballots than during all of 2024 early primary voting.
The surge is particularly pronounced in Dallas and the Rio Grande Valley. Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University, observed that many typically Republican voters are participating in Democratic primaries: “A significant number of those [who normally vote Republican] are also voting in the Democratic primary this time.” He attributed the shift to Republican apathy amid concerns over federal policies like mass deportations and ICE raids.
Tarrant County—a state population hub for Democrats—has seen unprecedented turnout despite historically low urban participation rates. Allison Campolo, chair of the Tarrant County Democratic Party, highlighted recent results: “Taylor Rehmet recently won a 14-point victory in the Senate District 9 special election runoff… The fact that Tarrant County voters are waking up day after day and putting up bigger numbers than Republicans absolutely leads us into November with a strong turnout.”
In competitive Senate primaries, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) maintains a narrow lead over state Rep. James Talarico. Analysts note Trump’s unpopularity among Democratic voters may be driving heightened engagement in key districts like Harris and Tarrant counties, where Democrats have historically struggled to mobilize large turnout.
Republican primary participation remains higher than recent midterm elections but lags significantly behind Democratic momentum, with experienced party members dominating early votes. Andy Hogue of the Travis County Republican Party urged voters: “Don’t be a drive-by voter. Cast an informed ballot.”